Oil prices fell on Monday, October 12, 2026, after Donald Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and promised increased Russian diesel supplies.
The announcements offered traders the prospect of more fuel, but Ukraine said it was still waiting for details and Russia did not comment. Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over whether the ceasefire would last left markets weighing possible supply relief against the risk of further escalation.
After the United States reached a diesel-supply deal with Moscow, Trump unexpectedly said on Sunday, October 11, 2026, that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop attacks on each other’s energy facilities.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was awaiting details of the agreement. Russia had not commented on it.
| Promised Russian diesel supply | Timing | Global daily consumption |
|---|---|---|
| More than 300,000 metric tons (2.25 million barrels) | Immediately | Close to 29 million barrels |
| 500,000 tons | November | Close to 29 million barrels |
| 1 million tons | Immediately thereafter | Close to 29 million barrels |
Trump said on Friday, October 9, 2026, that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons, or 2.25 million barrels, of diesel to United States and global markets, with another 500,000 tons arriving in November, followed by 1 million tons “immediately thereafter”.
The International Energy Agency said global diesel consumption was forecast to be close to 29 million barrels a day. The proposed volumes show the scale of the pledge without resolving whether Russia will make the deliveries or when all the promised fuel will reach buyers.
Brent crude futures were down 11 cents, or 0.11%, at $104.61 a barrel by 0627 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $91.36 a barrel, a decline of 49 cents, or 0.53%. Both benchmarks had fallen by more than 1% earlier in the session.
ICE gasoil futures dropped 3% to $1,436 per metric ton after Trump’s Friday announcement on Russian diesel supplies. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade chief analyst, said the announcements had reduced some immediate pressure on supply.
"Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited,"
The International Energy Agency also urged members to examine whether more diesel releases were needed. Its executive director, Fatih Birol, said countries that had not fully delivered previously pledged volumes should speed up the remaining releases and prioritise diesel.
Regional attacks keep a floor under crude
The West Asia conflict continued to support Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The Houthis said they were responsible for a strike on Riyadh’s international airport on Saturday, October 10, 2026, which killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.
Saudi authorities reported injuries in another attack on the airport on Sunday, October 11, 2026, while Trump said on Saturday, October 10, 2026, that the United States was weighing whether to join Saudi strikes on the Houthis.
So far this month, reports have described further attacks on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents threatened to weaken a recovery in regional crude exports that had been seen in September.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a drone struck a tanker near Sohar anchorage in Oman. Another vessel was damaged by an unknown projectile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shell, Chevron and BP were working to move personnel back and resume output from their Gulf of Mexico platforms after Hurricane Isaias came ashore early on Saturday, October 10, 2026.
Two snapshots of the oil market
Later market snapshot
0627 GMT
$104.61 Brent
- Brent down 11 cents
- WTI at $91.36
- WTI down 0.53%
Earlier market snapshot
0154 GMT
$103.18 Brent
- Brent down $1.54
- WTI at $90.31
- WTI down 1.68%
The reported market readings differed according to the time of the update. An earlier snapshot put Brent at $103.18 a barrel by 0154 GMT, down $1.54, or 1.47%, while WTI was $90.31 a barrel, lower by $1.54, or 1.68%. The later figures showed a smaller decline.
Goldman Sachs sees competing price forces
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85 previously. Its analysts, led by Daan Struyven, estimated the market’s risk premium at just over $20 a barrel.
"We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of West Asia supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk,"
The bank said WTI prices were unusually low compared with Brent because of high United States-Europe shipping costs. It forecast that WTI would average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027.
"We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs Brent because of high U.S.-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027,"
Goldman Sachs said its base case remained that continued adaptation of West Asia supply would eventually lower crude prices. It also identified renewed escalation as a significant upside risk.
The market response therefore remained constrained by questions about the ceasefire’s validity and durability. Details of the agreement were still unclear, Russia’s diesel deliveries had not been confirmed, and IEA members still had to assess whether further releases were necessary.
The next developments are expected to include clarification from Zelenskiy on the energy ceasefire and assessments by IEA members of any additional diesel releases.
