German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called the results of two state elections a “disaster” for his Christian Democratic Union (CDU), but says he is not going anywhere. Voters in Berlin and the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern went to the polls on Sunday 20 September, and the outcome deepened a crisis for the chancellor after just 16 months in office.
- 4.9%CDU in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, under the 5% threshold
- 38%AfD, first place in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
- 35.5%SPD, Merz’s coalition partner, second
- ~26%Die Linke in Berlin (projection), ahead of CDU on ~19%
What happened in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
The state on the Baltic coast delivered the worst result of any state election in the CDU’s history. With 4.9% of the vote the party fell just short of the 5% hurdle needed to enter parliament, and so leaves the state legislature for the first time in postwar history, according to The Guardian.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) finished first with 38%, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), Merz’s federal coalition partner, on 35.5%. It is the third German state in which the AfD has come first. It is unlikely to govern, because the other main parties have agreed not to work with it, a policy known as the “firewall”. Some branches of the AfD are classed as right-wing extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence service, a designation the party strongly rejects.
Berlin: the CDU is set to lose city hall
In the capital, public broadcasters ZDF and ARD projected the CDU on about 19%, behind Die Linke (The Left) on nearly 26%, the first time the party has ever topped a poll in Berlin, the BBC reported. The AfD was projected at about 16%. The Guardian said the CDU will almost certainly have to leave city hall once coalition talks are finished. Die Linke campaigned on tackling the housing crisis, including calls to expropriate large corporate landlords.
The Berlin figures were projections from election night; final official results may differ slightly.
Merz’s response
Minutes after polls closed, Merz gave an unusual televised statement to get ahead of the story. Speaking at CDU headquarters he said the reforms “have to come”, and that he takes responsibility for delivering them. He described his coalition’s planned package of economic, tax and welfare changes as an antidote to the appeal of authoritarianism. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel, asked by the BBC how long Merz has left, replied: “Pretty soon, he’s going to leave.”
Local media reported that some people at the CDU gathering objected loudly to the defiant tone of his planned speech, saying it ignored the message voters had sent. Merz, 70, has also cancelled a planned trip to New York for the UN General Assembly this week so that he can stay in Berlin.
A pattern of losses
This was the second heavy blow in a fortnight. Two weeks ago in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU’s vote fell by half to 17%, while the AfD won nearly 44%. Together with poor approval ratings for the chancellor, this has fuelled speculation about a Kanzlertausch, or “chancellor swap”, in which the CDU would replace Merz mid-term. Earlier this week the leaders of eight German states publicly backed him. A Berlin CDU politician, Burkard Dregger, told the BBC that Merz should be given the four years he was elected for.
Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding said Merz is “fighting for his political survival”, and that it will not be easy to contain unrest inside his party. The Guardian described a volatile deadlock: as long as no potential successor is ready to move against him and Merz refuses to step aside, the situation is unlikely to be resolved quickly.
What to watch
- Whether the SPD and CDU can keep their federal coalition working on reforms after these results.
- Coalition talks in Berlin and whether the CDU joins the next city government.
- Any move inside the CDU to challenge Merz, and who might be named as an alternative.
- How the mainstream parties respond to the AfD’s continued rise in eastern states, including the debate over the “firewall”.
